Autors: FilipovaPetrakieva, S. K., Dochev, V.
Title: Short-Term Forecasts of the Electrical Energy Consumption in Republic of Bulgaria
Keywords: Short-term forecasts, Electrical energy load, Classic Regres

Abstract: In this paper, a short-term forecast of the electrical energy load on the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria is made. Two classical regression analysis methods ("а moving window" and ARIMA), and six cluster analysis methods (K-Means, Time Series K-Means, Mini Batch K-Means, Agglomerative clustering, and OPTICS) were used for the forecasts. The following libraries have been used during the research: for processing and manipulation of the input data; to present the input data in graphical form and for mathematical calculations. Data are taken from the website of the Energy System Operator (ESO) in Bulgaria for the period 25.03 – 30.06.2021. For all of the methods mentioned above, short-term forecasts for the period 01 – 07 July 2021 are made. These forecasts are compared with the actual load for the same period published on the ESO website. The results of the comparison show a higher accuracy of the methods used by the authors.

References

    Issue

    BulEF'2021, 2021, Bulgaria, DOI 10.1109/BulEF53491.2021.9690782

    Copyright IEEE Xplore Digital Library

    Цитирания (Citation/s):
    1. V. Atanasov, D. Stoilov, Determining the Places for Installation of Remote Power Disconnectors in Overhead Power Lines, 22nd International Symposium on Electrical Apparatus and Technologies, SIELA’2022’.Bourgas, Bulgaria, 1-4 June 2022, Code: 182112, ISBN: 978-166541139-4, DOI: 10.1109/SIELA54794.2022.9845755 https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85137612309&origin=resultslist&sort=plf-f - 2022 - в издания, индексирани в Scopus или Web of Science
    2. K. Hadzhiyska, D. Stoilov, Criteria for Evaluation of Scenarios for National Energy System Development, 14th Electrical Engineering Faculty Conference, BulEF’2022, Varna, Bulgaria, 14 – 17 September 2022, Code: 186442, ISBN: 978-166549026-9, DOI: 10.1109/BulEF56479.2022.10021174 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10021174 https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85147840932&origin=resultslist&sort=plf-f&cite=2-s2.0-85126725777&src=s&imp=t&sid=6c19390191d6d0d937fbc7ec8ff0e9d2&sot=cite&sdt=a&sl=0&relpos=0&citeCnt=0&searchTerm= - 2022 - в издания, индексирани в Scopus или Web of Science
    3. Botev M., Altaparmakov I., Atanasov V., and Stoilov D., Mathematical Model for Balancing of Active Electric Distribution Networks, 15th International Conference BulEF’2023, 16-19.09.2023, Varna, Bulgaria, ISBN: 979-8-3503-2653-6/23, IEEE Catalog Number CFP23BUL-ART, 2023, Conference ID in IEEE Xplore: 59783X, DOI: 10.1109/BulEF59783.2023.10406269 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10406269 https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?origin=citedby&eid=2-s2.0-85185702322&noHighlight=false&relpos=1 - 2023 - в издания, индексирани в Scopus или Web of Science
    4. Dimitrov S., Tenchev I., Dobrilov D., Uzunov V., Design of a SYSTEM for Controlling an Automatic Hydraulic Station Powered by Photovoltaic Energy, 15th International Conference BulEF’2023, 16-19.09.2023, Varna, Bulgaria, ISBN: 979-8-3503-2653-6/23, IEEE Catalog Number CFP23BUL-ART, 2023, Conference ID in IEEE Xplore: 59783X, DOI: 10.1109/BulEF59783.2023.10406260 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10406260 https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?origin=citedby&eid=2-s2.0-85185723348&noHighlight=false&relpos=0 - 2023 - в издания, индексирани в Scopus или Web of Science

    Вид: публикация в национален форум с межд. уч., публикация в реферирано издание, индексирана в Scopus