|Autors: Terziev, A. k., Hristo Beloev., Iliya Iliev.|
Title: Risk assessment and management during the implementation process of a small scale hydropower plants
Keywords: risk assessment, hydropower plant, risk management, uncertainty analysis
Abstract: The paper analyzes the risk both during prefeasibility study and construction of a small scale hydropower plant (SHPP). The water discharge of the turbine is 0.550 m3/s with net head 143 meters and power output 680 kW. The performed probability analysis (P50) shows that probability of the annual discharge of the power plant at the point of water catchment amounted to 0.512 m3/s as P90 annual water discharge is 0.260 m3/s. The uncertainty model in terms of estimation of the electricity production was adopted. The accepted deviation is ± 15 % in relation with hydrological data, -10% because of operational stops, ± 5 % because of facility managements and -2 % of water intake management. Five risks were identified as probabilities and consequences were presented. Additional recommendations for risk management were made. Risk matrix for the significant risks severe consequences were presented.
Вид: публикация в национален форум с межд. уч., публикация в реферирано издание, индексирана в Scopus